Author of Inside the Danger Zones, Paul Moorcraft revisited Sudan recently for filming during the January elections. Here's what he has to say about the experience and the likelihood of South Sudanese independence in 2011.
I hold a world record for being arrested in Sudan, but I kept visiting for nearly 20 years. Sudan is Africa’s biggest country – for the moment. It endured the continent’s longest war, from 1955 to 2005, with intermittent outbreaks of peace in between. The internationally brokered Comprehensive Peace Agreement of 2005 led to the elections in April 2010. This produced two authoritarian regions, each led by one effective dictator, in both north and south.
The north is largely Muslim, and the south mainly Christian or animist. In addition, numerous cultural and ethnic divisions fuelled the long war. The new oil fields are largely in the south, and the pipelines to the sea run through the north. Peace makes economic sense.
I led 50 observers at the April 2010 election. I managed to get them all safely to the airport to fly out, but they were marooned at the last minute by volcanic ash – they couldn’t get back to Britain. After decades of tough war zones, pacifying for nearly two weeks 50 whinging Brits – Khartoum does not allow booze –was one of my most terrifying experiences.
The election mission was a diplomatic success, but a financial disaster for me personally. The contract had ended, but I felt honour bound – to the tune of tens of thousands from my own pocket – to entertain and accommodate my team in the former Hilton.
Unsurprisingly, I was not that keen to lead another observer mission for the referendum in the south in January this year. Instead, I went with three journalist colleagues to report and to make a film. No one shot at us, and no one was arrested. The most dangerous threat was from the plant life: we stayed at a hotel in Juba, the southern capital. Pretty and alongside the White Nile, but surrounded by large and aggressive Mango trees. The ex-Royal Marine cameraman with us had done a number of tours in Afghanistan. He said: ‘I survived all that and now I risk death by mango if one lands on my head.’ They rained down on us, day – and night, noisily so on the tin roofs.
We traversed the south – despite the country boasting less than 40 miles of tarred road – in 4x4s. The polling was largely peaceful, and free and fair, according to our experience and that of the large number of international observers. The official results come out in a few weeks, but no on doubts the voters will record a massive landslide for independence. A new country will be born in July this year.
Will it be another African failed state or will oil wealth prompt development on the South African model, as the ruling Sudan People’s Liberation Movement hope? That depends on whether the civil war resumes. The borders, especially through the oil fields, are still in dispute, especially in the Abyei region. And Bosnian-style ethnic cleansing could be a problem – many ‘Arab’ Muslim businessmen in the south have gone back north, and tens of thousands of southern refugees in the north have made the reverse trek.
No one knows what the new state will be called. Some suggest the Nile Republic, though the Republic of South Sudan is more likely, And what will the north be called? Will the north respond in anger to seize parts the oil fields, which make up 95 per cent of the south’s wealth? Or will President Omar al-Bashir in Khartoum forge a tougher Islamic, Arabic state in the north, but pragmatically accept southern independence? Probably. Many African states will recognise the new southern republic, despite fears that regional secession could be contagious throughout the continent.
For now, peace and optimism reign in the south, despite the kaleidoscope of tribal squabbles. And I shall resist all attempts to persuade me to work on more elections. Recently I lost nearly all my remaining sight, already damaged by previous wounds. There may be a niche market for blind observers in African elections, but count me out.
Paul Moorcraft 21 January 2011
Paul Moorcraft's book, Inside the Danger Zones is available now for £9.99