Forewarned A Sceptic's Guide to Prediction
By Paul Goodwin
Whether it’s an unforeseen financial crash, a shock election result or a washout summer that threatens to ruin a holiday in the sun, forecasts are part and parcel of our everyday lives. We rely wholeheartedly on them, and become outraged when things don’t go exactly to plan.
But should we really put so much trust in predictions? Perhaps gut instincts can trump years of methodically compiled expert knowledge? And when exactly is a forecast not a forecast? Forewarned will answer all of these intriguing questions, and many more.
Packed with fun anecdotes and startling facts, Forewarned is a myth-busting guide to prediction, based on the very latest scientific research. It lays out the many ways forecasting can help us make better decisions in an unpredictable modern world, and reveals when forecasts can be a reliable guide to the uncertainties of the future – and when they are best ignored.
"A fascinating book – and not at all a reassuring one."New Scientist
'Forewarned' is one of those books that will leave you far better informed than you were before you picked it up.E&T Magazine
The book is awash with entertaining examples of predictions that were astoundingly accurate and others that were spectacularly wrong.Irish Times
Share this book
Buy this book
- Paperback, 304 pages
- ISBN: 9781785902222
- 13 July 2017
- ISBN: 9781785902994
- 13 July 2017